The best first guess in Classic mode, calculated

Why the first guess matters so much

On your first guess you know nothing. Every later guess benefits from the colours you have already seen; the first one is played blind, which makes it the only guess you can prepare in advance. A good opener does not need to be right. Its job is to split the list of possible answers into small groups, so that the colours you get back tell you which group to search next.

Think of the two extremes. A guess that always returned the same colours, whatever the answer, would teach you nothing. A guess that returned a different combination for every possible answer would hand you the solution on your second try. Real openers sit somewhere in between, and that is exactly what this page measures.

The method

For each of the 91 Classic-mode characters, we simulated a game against each of the 91 possible answers, using the very comparison function the game runs. Every simulation produces a combination of six colours (Category, Role, Gender, Affiliation, Combat, Zone). Answers that produce the same combination are then grouped together: after that guess, there is no way to tell them apart.

Three numbers sum up how good an opener is:

• Candidates left (average): how many answers are still possible, on average, after the guess. This is the number that matters. An answer is more likely to land in a big group than in a small one, hence the formula: the sum of the squared group sizes, divided by 91.
• Information: the same idea expressed in bits, as in the well-known Wordle analyses. Each bit halves the number of candidates on average.
• Worst case: the size of the largest group, in other words what you are left with when luck is against you.

The Classic-mode ranking

The best opener, Chromatic Goblu, leaves 18.2 candidates out of 91 on average, which is 2.9 bits of information. In the worst case, 35 remain. At the other end of the table, Monoco leaves 67.2 candidates on average: barely better than not guessing at all.

Why a chromatic Nevron comes out on top

The answer lies in what the Classic pool is made of. Chromatic Nevrons, the elite versions of ordinary Nevrons, make up 59% of the 91 characters. There are 71 Nevrons in total, 63 optional bosses and 72 characters whose gender is "Unknown". The "Chroma" combat tag alone appears on 61 of them.

A chromatic opener therefore tests the most common values all at once, and every cell asks a real question. The Role cell separates optional bosses from story bosses and heroes. The Combat cell tells you whether the answer shares "Chroma", another style, both or neither. The Zone cell singles out characters from the same region. Instead of confirming what the numbers already suggested ("it's probably a Nevron"), the opener cuts the big block of Nevrons into small groups.

Among all the chromatics, Chromatic Goblu stands out thanks to its two other clues. Its combat tags pair "Chroma" with "Brute Force", the second most common style in the mode (19 characters), so the Combat cell does more than split chromatics from non-chromatics: it also flags the brawlers, chromatic or not. And its zone, The Continent, is the most frequent one in Classic mode (15 characters). The runners-up, Grosse Tete and Sprong, follow the same recipe: optional bosses from the Continent who fight with brute force.

Why the heroes make poor openers

This is the most counter-intuitive result. Opening with Gustave leaves you 57.4 candidates on average, which puts him at number 85 out of 91. Maelle is no better (58.9), and the best playable character, Lune, only comes in at number 82.

The reason is simple: heroes have rare values. Human, Playable, Expedition 33, Lumière, a sword or a rapier… Against the vast majority of answers, which are Nevrons, a hero returns an all-red row. That row only tells you the answer is not a human from Lumière, which the numbers already suggested. Rare values are excellent for confirming a hunch and poor for exploring.

What a good opener looks like in practice

Here are three sample games opened with Chromatic Goblu, computed on the current data:

These three cases show the three broad kinds of outcome:

• An all-red row is not a failure, quite the opposite. It removes every Nevron at once and leaves only a small handful of humans, Gestrals and creatures. It is often the outcome that teaches you the most.
• A single orange, on Combat, means the answer shares "Chroma" or "Brute Force" without being a Nevron. Only a few major story bosses remain.
• Green on Category, Gender and Affiliation but red on Role points to a Nevron that is not an optional boss, in other words a Nevron with the "Boss" role. The rest of the grid is enough to pin it down.

What about Complete mode?

Complete mode adds the 32 mobs, for a total of 123 characters. The ranking barely moves:

Chromatic Goblu is still the best opener, leaving 21.5 candidates out of 123 on average. Mobs have the "Mob" role, which does not exist in Classic mode, so they naturally fall on the red side of the Role cell when you open with an optional boss. That is why the same strategy carries over. The best-ranked mob, Chalier, only reaches number 23, and Gustave slides down to number 117 out of 123.

After the first guess

The same reasoning applies to every guess, with one important nuance. While many candidates remain, a guess that splits the list well is worth more than a guess that fits every clue, even if it has no chance of being the answer. Once only a handful are left, the opposite is true: play a character that fits, because it can win on the spot.

A few habits for the rest of the game:

1. After an all-red row, follow up with a human from Expedition 33: it efficiently separates the heroes, the Lumière NPCs and the rare creatures.
2. After an orange on Affiliation or Combat, look for a character that shares exactly one of the values: the cell will turn green or red and clear up the ambiguity.
3. With two candidates left, stop thinking and play one of them. You have a fifty-fifty chance of winning now and a guaranteed win on the next guess.

For a column-by-column reading of the grid, see Reading the clues in Classic mode.

The limits of this calculation

This ranking measures an average: it guarantees nothing about today's puzzle. If you prefer safety, look at the "Worst case" column, which shows the largest group an opener can leave you with. The calculation also ignores what you know about the game: a player who knows every zone of first appearance by heart will get more out of a Zone cell than a newcomer.

Finally, these tables are not frozen. They are recomputed automatically from the site's data whenever the roster changes, so the numbers on this page stay accurate. To check any character's clues, see the character codex, then try the opener on today's puzzle.